Australia lost 39,300 jobs last month — the Reserve Bank has almost certainly stopped raising rates.
Written by
Oliver Summers
The call
The number. 39,300 jobs lost in September, when forecasters expected a gain of around 20,000. Unemployment rose to 4.7%, its highest in five years.
What that does. A central bank that keeps raising rates while people are losing jobs has to explain itself. The Reserve Bank has raised four times this year. A fifth is now very hard to argue for.
The rate. 4.60%. The next decision is 3 November, and the market now expects it to be left alone.
The currency. When rates stop going up, a currency becomes less attractive to hold. Weaker Aussie.
The print
Released 15 October, for September.
Employment −39,300, against expectations of around +20,000.
Unemployment 4.7%, from 4.6%.
Full-time jobs +34,400. Part-time jobs −73,700.
Why it matters
Every job lost was a part-time one. Full-time employment actually grew by 34,400 while part-time work fell by 73,700.
That tells you what stage this is. Companies cut shifts and casual hours before they make permanent staff redundant. Total hours worked across the economy even rose slightly. So Australia has not stopped working — it has stopped hiring casuals.
That is a labour market cooling rather than breaking. But cooling is enough. The Reserve Bank has raised rates four times this year, and it is now doing so into rising unemployment. That is a difficult position to keep defending.
The case
The Australian dollar fell to 0.6953 on the release, its lowest in a week.
November now looks like a month where nothing happens. The argument has moved to December, and the case for that is weaker than it was a week ago.
Ideas
Long GBP/AUD. The Reserve Bank decides on 3 November. The Bank of England does not meet until 5 November, so sterling has nothing of its own in the way beforehand.
AUD/USD is the liquid choice, but the Federal Reserve decides on 28 October — before the Australian decision. Trading it means taking a view on the dollar as well.
Sources
ABS — Labour Force, Australia, September 2026 · Reuters via AOL — forecasts, rate expectations, currency reaction · Central bank meeting dates
What would prove this wrong
Australian inflation figures on 28 October. The Reserve Bank weighs inflation above any single month of jobs data. A high number puts November back in play and reverses this call outright.