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Reports
28 October 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Event Report
The RBNZ holds at 2.75% on a 4–3 vote. The rise is delayed rather than dropped, but the kiwi could stay under pressure until December.
The RBNZ unexpectedly held at 2.75% by four votes to three. Higher rates remain likely, but the delay until December and weak domestic demand lean the kiwi lower; conviction is moderate.
28 October 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Event Report
Australian inflation rises to 4.3% and the trimmed mean beats the RBA’s forecast, which strengthens the case for a November rise.
Inflation reached 4.3% and the quarterly trimmed mean rose 1.0% against the RBA’s 0.8% forecast. That supports a fifth rise on 3 November, though weak jobs and an expected core reading keep conviction moderate.
27 October 2026 · 00:00 UTC
What to Expect
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides Wednesday. A rise to 3% is expected, so the kiwi will move on what the Bank says about December.
A rise to 3.00% is expected. Oil, a weaker kiwi and firmer underlying inflation lean the Bank towards leaving December live; a cautious statement would weaken the currency.
26 October 2026 · 09:30 UTC
What to Expect
Tokyo inflation lands hours before the Bank of Japan decides — the last read on prices the Board will see.
JPY skew: balanced. Tokyo’s October inflation figures arrive on Friday morning, a few hours before the Bank of Japan’s decision. September jumped — core to 2.7% and core-core to 3.0% — and a repeat supports the case for a December rate rise.
26 October 2026 · 08:36 UTC
What to Expect
The Bank of Japan’s own inflation measure lands tomorrow — national figures point to a rise.
JPY skew: hawkish. The Bank’s own core measure was 1.8% in August. A rise to 2% would weaken the dissenters’ case and support the yen towards a possible December rate rise.
21 October 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Event Report
UK services inflation rose to 3.7% — a sign energy costs are spreading, and a stronger case for rate rises.
GBP bullish. Headline inflation beat at 3.5% and services — the measure the Bank of England watches most closely — climbed to 3.7%. A rise to 4% on 5 November looks more likely, and the case for another after it is building.
19 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
Canadian core inflation eased on every measure — a rate rise on 28 October looks less likely.
CAD bearish. Headline inflation rose to 3.1% on petrol, but all three of the Bank of Canada's core measures eased and two are now under the 2% target. With jobs falling too, the case leans down into the 28 October decision.
15 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
US wholesale prices rose twice as fast as expected — the pressure on the Fed to raise again is building.
USD bullish. Producer prices jumped 1.3% in September against 0.6% expected, the biggest monthly rise in over four years. It leans the dollar higher into the 27–28 October decision.
15 October 2026 · 06:00 UTC
Event Report
UK growth edged past forecasts — a small push towards a November rate rise.
GBP bullish. The economy grew 0.1% in August against a fall expected — a small beat that weakens the argument for the Bank of England to keep waiting. The bigger test is 21 October inflation.
15 October 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Event Report
Australia lost 39,300 jobs last month — the Reserve Bank has almost certainly stopped raising rates.
AUD bearish. Employment fell 39,300 against a gain of around 20,000 expected, and unemployment rose to 4.7% — a five-year high. The 3 November decision is priced to be left alone.
14 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
Core inflation rose for a second month running — the energy shock has reached everything else.
USD bullish. September core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, lifting the annual rate to 2.6%. October Fed rise odds jumped from 22% to 43% on the release.
14 October 2026 · 11:09 UTC
Event Report
US inflation lands in eighty minutes — and only one of the two numbers matters.
Headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.6–3.7% on energy, and it means little. Core monthly is the whole report — with October priced at only 20–25%, the risk points hawkish.
09 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
Canada lost another 68,000 jobs — and the talk of a rate rise this month is finished.
68,300 jobs lost against a small gain expected, second straight fall, participation at a 29-year low. October hike priced to zero. Bearish CAD into 28 October.
08 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
Jobless claims fell to 197,000 — almost nobody is being fired, and that keeps a December rise in play.
197,000 claims against 200,000 expected, near a 57-year low. A frozen jobs market, not a breaking one — December stays near 80%. Dollar supported.
07 October 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Event Report
The Fed minutes say every member voted for the rise — and most want another by year end.
A 12–0 September vote and Waller repeating it the next day. Around 20–25% for October, a year-end rise priced in. Dollar supported.
02 October 2026 · 06:06 UTC
Event Report
America barely added any jobs in September — and the dollar went up anyway.
29,000 jobs against 89,000 expected, but surging company costs keep a December Fed rise alive near 80%. Dollar firm into 14 October.
06 September 2026 · 06:30 UTC
Event Report
The RBNZ hiked to 2.75% — and deleted the line promising more.
A fully priced 25bp rise to 2.75%, but the Bank removed its guidance for further increases and cut its own track. Bearish NZD into 28 October.
02 September 2026 · 00:30 UTC
Event Report
Australian GDP grew 0.4% — and a September rate rise went from a coin flip to 70%.
GDP beat 0.3% expectations at 0.4%, pushing RBA September hike pricing to 70%. Bullish AUD into the 29 September decision.
26 August 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Event Report
Australian CPI beats across the board — the September hike debate reopens.
Headline 3.5% vs 3.3% expected and a trimmed mean that refused to ease. Hawkish AUD.
20 August 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Event Report
Australian jobs contract — the hawkish story loses a leg.
Employment −15.8K against +11.7K expected, unemployment up to 4.5%. The labour leg of the AUD case weakens.
18 August 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Event Report
Two Canadas in one number.
Headline CPI at 3.0% on petrol, core trim unchanged at 1.9%. A BoC hold stays fully priced. No trade.