Australian CPI beats across the board — the September hike debate reopens.
Written by
Oliver Summers
The print
Headline CPI came in at 3.5% against 3.3% expected. The trimmed mean held at 3.6% where the market had been looking for an easing to 3.5%. The monthly trimmed mean printed 0.5% against 0.4% expected.
There is no soft reading in that set. Every line came in above consensus, and the measure the RBA actually cares about — the trimmed mean — did not move at all.
Why it matters
The disinflation story the market had been leaning on for a September cut has lost its foundation. A trimmed mean stuck at 3.6% is a full point above the top of the band. The September meeting is now live in the other direction: the hike debate reopens rather than closes.
The case
Hawkish AUD into the next rate decision. This is a positioning trade, not a reaction trade — the print is the reason to be positioned, the decision is the event being positioned into.
Entry timing is on the 15-minute at a session boundary, not on the release candle. The exit is a date — the RBA decision — not a price.
What would prove this wrong
A downward revision to the trimmed mean, or an RBA speaker explicitly framing this print as noise, removes the case. If the trimmed mean is restated at or below 3.5%, the hawkish argument is void and the position comes off regardless of price.