The Fed minutes say every member voted for the rise — and most want another by year end.

The call

The event. Minutes of the 16 September meeting, published 7 October. Governor Waller spoke the following day.

What they said. Every participant backed September's quarter-point rise to 3.75–4.00%. Most judged another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end." The reason was inflation — they had "not seen sufficient progress on lowering inflation in recent months."

The rate. 3.75–4.00%. Around 20–25% chance of a move at the 27–28 October meeting; a rise by year end is priced in.

The currency. Higher rates make a currency worth more to hold, and the Fed has confirmed it is not finished. Dollar supported.

The print

No number. The published record of a decision already taken, plus a Governor's speech the next day.

Vote 12–0 in September. Nobody against. The dollar index rose 0.42% to 102.3 on the day the minutes landed.

Why it matters

Two things here matter more than the headline.

First, where the Fed says the inflation is coming from. Several participants named further tariff rises as an upside risk, many pointed to high energy costs feeding into wider price pressure, and some noted businesses are finding it easier to pass costs on to customers. None of that is the kind of inflation a central bank can wait out.

Second, Waller explained the shape of what follows: "The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time." That line explains the pricing — around 20–25% for October, a rise priced by year end. They are not going twice in a row. They are still going.

He was equally clear on why: "Overall, the new data reinforce my view that the labor market is stable and inflation is too high."

The case

The Fed is tightening, says so unanimously, and a voting Governor repeated it the next day. There is nothing in the document arguing the other way.

The support underneath is real. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.36% on the day, its highest since 2002, settling back near 5.28%.

What the minutes do not give is an entry. At 20–25%, the October meeting is not an event to position into.

Timing. The minutes were published at 18:00 UTC, into thin late-session trade. Waller spoke at 08:30 UTC the next day, around the London open — the better of the two windows to read a reaction in.

Ideas

Hold the direction, wait for the level. The dollar bias is up and the Fed has just confirmed it. The next meeting offers nothing to ride, so this is a reason to be long dollar when a level appears, not a reason to buy here.

Sources

FOMC minutes, 15–16 September 2026 · Fed press release · Waller speech, 8 October 2026 · Babypips — market reaction, pricing, yields, dollar index